Trifecta vulnerability in the 2020 elections
| State government trifectas |
|---|
 |
Current trifecta status Historical and potential changes in trifectas Trifecta vulnerability in the 2019 elections Trifecta vulnerability in the 2018 elections |
Gubernatorial or state legislative elections took place in 42 states in 2020. Trifecta status was at stake in all 42 states. A trifecta exists when one party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house.
 | |
|
At the time of the 2020 elections, there were 36 trifectas: 21 Republican trifectas and 15 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 14 states had a divided government where neither party had a trifecta. Elections for one or more trifecta offices took place in 19 of the 21 states with Republican trifectas, 13 of the 15 states with Democratic trifectas, and 10 of the 14 states with divided government. On this page, we assessed the likelihood of each existing state government trifecta breaking, and of new state government trifectas forming, as a result of the 2020 elections.
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Click here for more on how these ratings were calculated.
The 2020 elections resulted in Republicans gaining two trifectas in the states of Montana and New Hampshire, both of which had divided government at the time of the election. Democrats neither gained nor lost any trifectas in 2020.
Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," according to NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1] Between 2010 and 2019, 70 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
For more on current state government trifectas, click here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 15 trifectas Not vulnerable: 7 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 Moderately vulnerable: 5 Highly vulnerable: 0 |
Republican Party Current status: 21 trifectas Not vulnerable: 13 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 Moderately vulnerable: 4 Highly vulnerable: 1 |
|---|
Vulnerable trifectas
|
|
|
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Slight possibility: 2 Moderate possibility: 1 |
Toss-ups 2 |
Predicted Republican pickups Slight possibility: 1 Moderate possibility: 1 |
|---|
Potential new trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all it's somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2020 election for Democrats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 20 | 13 | 17 | |||||
| Population | 327,533,774[2] | 156,003,078 | 43,705,841 | 127,824,855 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 47.6% | 13.3% | 39.0% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2020 election for Republicans | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 6 | 25 | 19 | |||||
| Population | 327,533,774[3] | 85,057,747 | 147,508,748 | 94,967,279 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 26.0% | 45.0% | 29.0% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Trifecta status
Heading into the 2020 elections, there were trifectas in 36 of the 50 states.
- 21
Republican - 15
Democratic
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas as of January 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| Population | 327,533,774 [4] | 120,182,161 | 133,860,630 | 73,490,983 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 36.7% | 40.9% | 22.4% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
Method
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 5-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3-4 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2020, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2020, vulnerability was calculated as follows:
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, at the time of the 2020 elections, the Democratic Party controlled the governorship in Montana while the Republican Party controlled majorities in both houses of the Montana State Legislature. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicated the likelihood of a Republican trifecta forming, while projections on the outcome of the legislative elections indicated the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming.
In the event that a Democratic and Republican trifecta both have a good chance of forming, the state is considered a toss-up potential trifecta.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
To assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming, the scores of the individual components are added together. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
Footnotes
- ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "2019 National and State Population Estimates," December 30, 2019
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "2019 National and State Population Estimates," December 30, 2019
- ↑ Excludes the 693,972 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
| ||||||||||||||||
