Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2020

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Published on Sept. 21, 2020

Last updated on December 13, 2022[1]
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2020 state-level election analysis
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Ballotpedia's 2020 study of competitiveness in state executive official elections found that 35.6% of incumbents did not seek re-election, leaving those offices open. This was lower than 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%), but higher than 2014 (32.7%). The decade average for open offices was 36.5%.

Our study also found that 19.7% of partisan races did not have major party competition (meaning either a Democrat or Republican ran uncontested), the highest rate in even-year elections since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012. The two previous presidential year election cycles, 2012 and 2016, saw rates of 11.8% and 12.8%, respectively. The decade average for races without major party competition was 12.9%.[2]

Key sections of analysis on this page include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Of the 163 state executive offices up for election in 2020, 64.4% had an incumbent seeking re-election. This was consistent with the decade average of 63.5%, but also the highest rate since 2014 when 67.3% sought another term.
  • Of the 102 incumbents subject to primaries rather than solely conventions, 63.0% advanced to the general election without a contested primary.[3]
  • In the 137 partisan races, 19.7% did not have major party competition, the highest rate since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012.[2]
  • Of the 36 partisan open offices where an incumbent from a major party was not term-limited, 69.4% were in a state with a pivot county (a county that voted twice for President Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 before switching to support President Donald Trump (R) in 2016).

    • Of the various types of executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.

    Other state executive offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, public lands commissioner, tax commissioner, railroad commissioner, public education commissioner, mine inspector, executive council, state board of equalization, state board of education, and state board of regents.[4]

    Defining competitiveness

    An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.

    Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 27 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2018. From 2008-2018, the re-election rate averaged 92.1%.

    Incumbents not seeking re-election, 2011-2020

    There were 58 state executive office elections in 2020 where the incumbent did not seek re-election. As a percentage of all offices on the ballot, 35.6% of incumbents did not seek re-election. This was lower than 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%), but higher than 2014 (32.7%). The decade average for open offices was 36.5%.

    Even-numbered election years are highlighted.
    Source: Ballotpedia

    Click [Show] on the table below to view number totals:

    *These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
    Source: Ballotpedia

    Click [show] on the table header below for complete, state-by-state information on open offices and guaranteed newcomers.


    Effect of term limits on competitiveness

    See also: Impact of term limits on state executive elections in 2020

    Of the 58 open state executive races in 2020, 11 of them (19.0%) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again. This was the lowest amount since 2016, when many of the same offices were on the ballot. That year, term limits were responsible for 14% of the open offices. In 2018, term limits were responsible for 43% of open offices, the largest number for all even-numbered election year between 2011 and 2020.

    Some examples:

    • There were two states where a new governor was guaranteed in 2020 because the incumbent did not seek re-election. In one of those two states, Montana, term limits prohibited the incumbent from seeking re-election.
    • There were three states where a new lieutenant governor was guaranteed in 2020 because the incumbent did not seek re-election. In one of those three states, North Carolina, term limits prohibited the incumbent from seeking re-election.[6]
    • In Montana, a new attorney general was guaranteed in 2020 because the incumbent did not seek re-election. Term limits prohibited the incumbent from seeking re-election.

    Even-numbered election years are highlighted.
    Source: Ballotpedia

    Primary election competitiveness

    See also: 2020 primary election competitiveness in state and federal government

    The following charts provide information on primary competitiveness including the total number of primaries and the number of incumbents challenged in primaries. Races, where candidates are chosen exclusively through the convention process rather than primaries, are not included in this analysis.

    Most state executive official elections occur in midterm election cycles rather than presidential election cycles. In 2020, there was a 31.2% decrease in offices up for election in 2020 compared to 2018. The number of candidates running decreased 36.2%. The number of open offices has fallen 43.8%, and the number of primaries has dropped 50.9%. Election competitiveness measurements were higher this in 2020 than in 2016.[7]


    Incumbents in contested primaries

    In 2020, 105 incumbents sought re-election, 102 of whom could have faced contested primaries.[8] Of that total, 37 (36.3%) had a contested primary and 63 (63.0%) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.[9]

    By party, 18 of the 51 Democratic incumbents seeking re-election through the primary process (35.3%) had contested primaries compared to 19 of the 51 Republican incumbents (37.3%). Three incumbents ran for re-election for offices nominated solely through the convention process and are not included here.

    Click [show] on the table below to see details regarding incumbents in contested primaries in each state.

    Incumbents defeated

    The following table lists incumbents defeated state executive conventions, primaries, and general elections:

    Incumbents defeated before the general election
    Office Incumbent Election/convention winner
    Defeated in conventions
    Indiana Attorney General Republican Party Curtis Hill Republican Party Todd Rokita
    Utah Board of Education Republican Party Laurieann Thorpe Republican Party Matt Hymas
    Utah Board of Education Republican Party Mike Haynes Republican Party Natalie Cline
    Defeated in primaries
    New Mexico Public Education Commission Democratic Party Ricardo Caballero Democratic Party Melissa Armijo
    Texas Railroad Commissioner Republican Party Ryan Sitton Republican Party James Wright
    Defeated in general elections
    Office of Hawaiian Affairs Independent Colette Machado Independent Luana Alapa
    Kansas Board of Education Republican Party Kathy Busch Democratic Party Betty Arnold
    Michigan Board of Regents Democratic Party Shauna Ryder Diggs Republican Party Sarah Hubbard
    Michigan Board of Regents Democratic Party Brian Mosallam Republican Party Pat O'Keefe
    Nevada Board of Education Independent Mark Newburn Independent Rene Cantu
    New Hampshire Executive Council Democratic Party Michael Cryans Republican Party Joseph Kenney
    New Hampshire Executive Council Democratic Party Debora Pignatelli Republican Party Dave Wheeler
    New Mexico Public Education Commission Democratic Party Trish Ruiz Republican Party K.T. Manis
    Ohio Board of Education Independent Lisa Woods Independent Christina Collins
    Pennsylvania Treasurer Democratic Party Joseph Torsella Republican Party Stacy Garrity
    Washington Treasurer Republican Party Duane Davidson Democratic Party Mike Pellicciotti
    West Virginia Treasurer Democratic Party John Perdue Republican Party Riley Moore


    Races without major party competition

    See also: State executive official elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2020[2]

    When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state executive office, the party is all but guaranteed to win the office. Partisan races for 27 of 137 state executive offices (19.7%) did not have major party competition in 2020, the highest rate in even-year elections since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012.[15] The two previous presidential year election cycles, 2016 and 2012, saw rates of 11.8% and 12.8%, respectively.

    Races for 11 of 93 offices up in 2016 (11.8%), the most recent cycle when a comparable number of seats were on the ballot, lacked major party competition. In 2018, 32 of 298 offices (10.7%) lacked major party competition.

    In 2020, races for 15 offices did not have a Republican candidate. The offices with no Republicans on the ballot and thus likely to be won by Democrats included:


    Races for 12 offices did not have a Democratic candidate. The offices with no Democrats on the ballot and thus likely to be won by Republicans included:


    Click [show] on the table below to see details of seats up for election without major party competition in each state.


    Influence of presidential elections on incumbent departures

    Competitiveness in state executive races can be affected by a recent U.S. presidential contest that alters the previously assumed balance of power between the two major parties in a state. A state executive official elected as a Republican during a non-presidential year may soon find voters cast their ballots for the presidential candidate of the opposite party or vice versa. This may influence an incumbent's decision to seek re-election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won ten states holding state executive official election in 2020 and Donald Trump (R) won 19 .

    In 2020, there were 71 incumbents holding statewide partisan offices who were not term-limited.[16] The table below breaks down that number by each party's incumbents in states won by Clinton or Trump and the number of such incumbents who did not seek re-election:

    Democrats Incumbents Open offices % Open offices Republicans Incumbents Open offices % Open offices
    Democratic Party Clinton states 16 2 12.5% Democratic Party Clinton states 5 1 20.0%
    Republican Party Trump states 15 4 26.7% Republican Party Trump states 34 5 14.7%
    Total 31 6 19.4% Total 39 6 15.4%


    For both Democrats and Republicans, the percentage open offices in states won by the opposing party's presidential candidate in 2016 was higher than party average. This means that a Democratic incumbent was more likely not to seek re-election in a state Trump won than a similar incumbent in a state Clinton won and vice versa for Republican incumbents. These departures occurred in two states. Four Democratic incumbents did not seek re-election in Michigan, which Trump won, and one Republican incumbent did not seek re-election in Oregon, which Clinton won:

    Departing 2020 incumbents in states won by opposing party's presidential nominee in 2016
    State Incumbent Office Most recent margin of victory Trump/Clinton 2016 margin of victory
    Michigan
    Democratic Party Michelle Fecteau Board of Education 5.9%
    (2012)    		 Republican Party Trump 0.2%[17]
    Democratic Party Lupe Ramos-Montigny Board of Education 2.4%
    (2012)
    Democratic Party Joel Ferguson Board of Regents 4.8%
    (2012)
    Democratic Party Sandra O'Brien Board of Regents 6.5%
    (2012)
    Oregon Republican Party Bev Clarno Secretary of State N/A[18] Democratic Party Clinton 11.0%

    Influence of pivot counties on incumbent departures

    The number of open offices in state executive races may also increase due to the existence of a pivot county within the state.

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. David Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections provided the raw data for this study. Collectively, Trump won these pivot counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.5%.

    Of the 58 total incumbents not seeking re-election in 2020, 11 were term-limited and another 11 were in nonpartisan offices. Of the remaining 36 open offices, 25 (69.4%) were in states with at least one pivot county. All Democratic incumbent departures occurred in states with at least one pivot county. For Republicans, 12 of 20 departures (60.0%) occurred in states with at least one pivot county. For both parties, two departures came after incumbents chose to seek a different office.[19]

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The numbers reflected here are subject to change by the time of the general election. Additionally, Ballotpedia is currently conducting a decade-wide audit of all state legislative elections in order to standardized data from previous years.
    2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 In this analysis, a race without major party competition is defined as a race for an office where at no point in the election cycle a Republican appears on the ballot with a Democrat or vice versa. In most instances, this would be the general election ballot. In the case of top-two primary states, that primary would also be taken into consideration even if two candidates from the same party eventually advance to the general election. This definition differs from elsewhere on Ballotpedia and therefore numbers for this metric on other pages might not equal what is included here. Ballotpedia is in the process of updating competitiveness data from 2010 to 2020 and bringing this section in line with the definition used elsewhere will be part of that process.
    3. ↑ Two incumbents in Utah had the potential to face contested primaries before they were defeated in conventions. They are included in the 102 total of incumbents whose offices do not choose candidates solely through conventions. They are not included in the 63 who advanced without a contested primary.
    4. ↑ In this report, if a lieutenant gubernatorial candidate is chosen by a gubernatorial candidate rather than participating in a primary or convention, that race is not included.
    5. ↑ Other encompasses any offices held by third party or independent incumbents. For offices holding nonpartisan elections, Ballotpedia relies on additional research into previous partisan positions, endorsements from political parties, and local reporting to identify party affiliation whenever possible. If a nonpartisan candidate's party affiliation cannot be found, that candidate is listed as an other candidate.
    6. ↑ In this analysis, Ballotpedia only includes lieutenant gubernatorial races where the candidates are not chosen by a gubernatorial candidate either because the lieutenant gubernatorial candidates are selected in a convention, elected in a separate primary, or run in races separate from the gubernatorial contest.
    7. ↑ Note: Following the 2016 election cycle, Ballotpedia expanded its coverage to include a larger number of state executive official elections. As such, comparisons between 2016 and 2020 should be qualified. Ballotpedia is currently in the process of updating its competitiveness data from 2010 to 2020, which will allow for the inclusion of these races previously not covered.
    8. ↑ The remaining four incumbents ran for offices where parties used conventions rather than primaries as the sole path to the general election ballot and are not included in this analysis. Those incumbents were Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill (R-Ind.), Indiana Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch (R-Ind.), and South Dakota Public Utilities Commissioner Gary Hanson (R-S.D.).
    9. ↑ Two members of the Utah State Board of Education were defeated in conventions before they were able to advance to the primary and therefore are not included in these calculations because, while they could have faced primaries had they received convention support, they were defeated and could not advance to the general election.
    10. ↑ Out of all Democratic incumbents seeking re-election
    11. ↑ Out of all Republican incumbents seeking re-election
    12. ↑ Out of all incumbents seeking re-election
    13. ↑ Major party nominees for two of the three positions up for election in Indiana this year—Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General—were decided in conventions, not primaries. There was no competition in either major party's lieutenant gubernatorial convention process.
    14. ↑ The one office up for election in South Dakota this year was a seat on the Public Utilities Commission. Party nominees for this position were decided in conventions, not primaries.
    15. ↑ Ballotpedia identified races for 26 state executive office as nonpartisan elections meaning candidates run without party affiliation. Races for those 26 offices were excluded from the calculations and analyses in this section.
    16. ↑ By definition, this analysis excludes the 92 state executive officials who held offices who were not elected by statewide vote (i.e. a Board of Education district or Executive Council seat), who were elected through nonpartisan elections, or who were term-limited.
    17. ↑ Elections for all four open offices in Michigan most recently took place in 2012. During the presidential election that year, the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, won the state by 9.5% over the Republican, Mitt Romney.
    18. ↑ Clarno was appointed secretary of state by Gov. Kate Brown (D) following the death of former Secretary Dennis Richardson (R). Richardson won in 2016 by 4.1% over Brad Avakian (D).
    19. ↑ For Democrats, those incumbents were Vermont's Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (D) and New Hampshire's Executive Council member Andru Volinsky (R), both of whom ran for governor in their respective states. For Republicans, Montana's Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R) chose to run for the U.S. House and North Carolina's Superintendent of Public Instruction chose to run for lieutenant governor.
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