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Illinois gubernatorial election, 2010

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In the Illinois gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Democrat Pat Quinn defeated Republican Bill Brady. Quinn has been serving as the appointed incumbent Governor since Rod Blagojevich was removed from office.

Following the February 2, 2010 pr imary elections, Pat Quinn secured a narrow victory over Dan Hynes while Bill Brady faced a very competitive field with half a dozen contenders; he won the nomination by a tenth of a point.

Also in the race was Scott Lee Cohen, who initially won the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor before disclosures about his personal life compelled him to leave the race. A millionaire who owns a series of pawn shops, Cohen re-entered the race as a self-funded Independent candidate for the governorship.

The race reached the zenith (or nadir) of silliness when Democrat Pat Quinn, struggling to make up ground, accused his Republican opponent of supporting a bill to kill puppies.[1] In fact, the bill regulated shelters' practices when they euthanize animals.

November 2, 2010 general election results

As of December 8, 2010, official results are available from the Secretary of State.[2]

Governor and Lt. Governor of Illinois, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPat Quinn & Sheila Simon Incumbent 46.8% 1,745,219
     Republican Bill Brady & Jason Plummer 45.9% 1,713,385
     Independent Scott Lee Cohen & Baxter Swilley 3.6% 135,705
     Green Rich Whitney & Don Crawford 2.7% 100,756
     Libertarian Lex Green & Ed Ruthledge 0.9% 34,681
     None Write-in 0% 243
Total Votes 3,729,989

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Newly elected to a full term in his own right, Pat Quinn and running mate Sheila Simon began their term on January 12, 2011.

Transition team

Governor Quinn did not announce any major changes to his administration ahead of beginning his elected term.

February 2, 2010 primaries

The primary elections were held on February 2, 2010. Incumbent Governor Pat Quinn declared victory in the Democratic nomination over State Comptroller Dan Hynes in a close race. By February 3, Hynes had not conceded the race. Fewer than 6,000 votes separated the two, and the potential for recounts were discussed. On February 4, 2010, Hynes conceded the primary, making Pat Quinn the Democratic nominee.[3][4]

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[5]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Pat Quinn (D) 50.5%
Dan Hynes 49.5%
Total votes 915,726

On the Republican side, Illinois State Senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard shared the lead in a race too close to call initially, with Andy McKenna in third by a razor thin margin.[6]

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[7]
Candidates Percentage
Adam Andrzekewski (R) 14.5%
Green check mark.jpg Bill Brady (R) 20.3%
Kirk Dillard (R) 20.2%
Andy McKenna (R) 19.3%
Dan Proft (R) 7.7%
Jim Ryan (R) 17.0%
Robert Schillerstorm (R) 1.0%
Total votes 767,485

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Illinois
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[8] Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly Politics[9] Leans Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Leans Republican
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[11] Leans Republican
The Rothenberg Political Report[12] Toss-up Tilting Republican
Overall Call Republican

Changes

5. Rothenberg moved race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up Tilting Republican" on October 28th.

4. Rasmussen moved race from "Solid Republican" to "Leans Republican" following October 6th polling.

3. Rasmussen moved race from "Toss-up" to "Solid Republican" following September 12th poll.[13]

2. Rasmussen moved race from "Leans GOP" back to "Toss-up" following August 22nd poll.

1. Rasmussen moved race from "Toss-up" to "Leans GOP" following August 12th poll.

Polling

Four-way polling

2010 Four-Way Race for Illinois Governor - Rasmussen Reports[14]
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Whitney (G) Cohen (I) Other Don't Know
October 20, 2010[15] 45% 37% 2% 6% 1% 8%
October 12, 2010[16] 46% 40% 2% 4% 5% 3%
(Sample)[17] n=750 MoE=+/- 4.0% p=0.05

Three-way polling

2010 Three-Way Race for Illinois Governor - Rasmussen Reports[18]
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Whitney (G) Other Don't Know
October 4, 2010[19] 46% 38% 4% 5% 8%
September 12, 2010[20] 50% 37% 4% 7% 3%
(Sample)[21] n=750 MoE=+/- 4.0% p=0.05

Two-way polling

2010 Two-Way Race for Illinois Governor - Rasmussen Reports[22]
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Other Don't Know
August 23, 2010[23] 46% 37% 6% 11%
August 9, 2010[24] 48% 35% 6% 12%
July 26, 2010[25] 44% 37% 11% 9%
July 7, 2010[26] 43% 40% 9% 8%
June 7, 2010[27] 47% 36% 8% 10%
April 28, 2010[28] 45% 38% 7% 10%
April 5, 2010[29] 46% 45% 2% 7%
March 8, 2010[30] 47% 37% 6% 9%
(Sample)[31] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Five-way polling

2010 Five-Way Race for Illinois Governor - We Ask America
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Cohen (I) Whitney (G) Green (L) Uncertain
September 13, 2010[32] 41.95% 32.43% 5.06% 3.54% 1.65% 15.57%
(Sample) n=1,330 MoE=+/- 2.7% p=0.05
2010 Five-Way Race for Illinois Governor - Public Policy Polling
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Cohen (I) Whitney (G) Green (L) Uncertain
September 23-26, 2010[33] 42% 35% 6% 2% 4% 11%
(Sample) n=470 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05
2010 Five-Way Race for Illinois Governor - CNN/Time
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Cohen (I) Whitney (G) Other Uncertain
September 24-28, 2010[34] 40% 38% 14% 4% 2% 2%
(Sample) n=828 MoE=+/- 3.5% p=0.05

Race background

The gubernatorial race in Illinois in 2010 was one of the most analyzed and significant races of the year. In 2008, former Governor Rod Blagojevich was indicted and arrested on a host of corruption charges. Illinois has a storied past of corrupt politicians, and the Blagojevich incident both highlighted that past and undercut faith in government almost entirely in a state that had little enough to begin with.[35] Blagojevich's ties to President Obama, former Illinois state senator as well as a former U.S. Senator from Illinois, further complicated the situation for the state.[36]

Key issues

In 2010, voters top concerns included wasteful spending, trustworthy governance, fiscal responsibility, and ethics, due in large part to the Blagojevich scandal[37]. The incumbent, Governor Pat Quinn, was appointed to replace Blagojevich, having previously served as his Lt. Governor.

Some specific campaign issues included the expansion of Chicago's O'Hare airport[38], a potential tax increase of up to 50% proposed by Governor Quinn[39], and Illinois' economy[40] and high unemployment[41].

Historically, Illinois has shifted from strongly Democratic to strongly Republican more than once. Long considered a battleground state, it has been considered solidly blue for some years now. That trend counted against Republicans in the general election. However, some suggested anti-incumbent sentiment and continuing economic woes would prove beneficial to the GOP in 2010, as happened with the victory of Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special election in January, 2010.[42]

Scott Lee Cohen as a potential spoiler

The re-emergence of a former Democratic nominee as an independent candidate threatenined to siphon just enough votes from Pat Quinn's re-election bid to tip the election to Republican Bill Brady.

Scott Lee Cohen, a pawnbroker whose business has made him a millionaire, jumped into the race in August of 2009. He was initially competing for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination before withdrawing to allow Pat Quinn to enjoy an uncontested field. He refiled to run for the lt. gubernatorial nomination and won that primary on February 2, 2010.

Cohen soon disclosed personal information relating to a marriage that ended in divorce and to a former girlfriend, which led to calls from fellow Illinois Democrats, including incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, that he withdraw.[43] While Cohen was adamant that he would not withdraw when he spoke to media on February 4, 2010 rumors were swirling that he was seeking a graceful exit and he officially resigned his nomination on February 7, 2010.[44]

However, in late April, he confirmed stories that he was exploring an independent gubernatorial bid and had paid a private polling firm to survey voters on their receptiveness to his potential candidacy.[45] He indeed filed to run as an Independent on May 3, 2010 and successfully submitted 130,000 signatures to petition onto the ballot.

Third party analysts gave Cohen very little chance of winning but his presence in the race where the two major party nominees were polling so closely and his personal fortune made him a prime candidate to play spoiler, something that did not ultimately happen.[46]

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who's Made It? Illinois Governor[47]
Nominee Affiliation
Pat Quinn, with Sheila Simon Democrat
Bill Brady, with Jason Plummer Republican
Rich Whitney, with Don W. Crawford Green
Lex Green, with Ed Rutledge Libertarian
Scott Lee Cohen, with Baxter B. Swilley Independent
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who have since been officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

The Illinois Secretary of State maintains a list of candidates.[48]

Democratic

Withdrawn

  • Scott Lee Cohen withdrew his Democratic candidacy on March 5, 2010, leaving Gov. Quinn unopposed for his party's nod. Cohen later refiled as an independent candidate.
  • Attorney Ed Scanlan[49]
  • William "Dock" Walls[50] (endorsed Dan Hynes)[51] Walls refiled to run as an Independent.

Republican

Withdrawn

  • Bob Schillerstrom, chair of the DuPage County Board, exited the race in late January and endorsed Jim Ryan. However, he remained on the ballot and drew a small percentage of primary votes. (endorsed Jim Ryan)[52]

Constitution

  • Michael L. White

Green Party

Independent

Independent Conservative

  • Christopher Pedersen, an attorney, simultaneously filed to run for every office on the November ballot and soon found himself facing three pending objections to his candidacy.[54]

Libertarian

Campaign finance

The Illinois State Board of Elections makes PDFs of all reports and addenda for candidates available free and online at their "Elections" site.

Candidates for 2010 are most easily searchable using the "Contributions Search - By Candidates page"

Additionally, information on campaign finance disclosures is broken down into several useful metrics on "Follow the Money."

Reporting periods and due dates

Reporting periods and due dates for statewide candidates for the November 2010 elections are as follows:

  • 1st Semi-Annual 2009 (January 1 - June 30, 2009): due July 20, 2009
  • 2nd Semi-Annual 2009 (July 1 - December 31, 2009): due January 20, 2010
  • 1st Semi-Annual 2010 (January 1 - June 30, 2010): due July 20, 2010
  • 2nd Semi-Annual 2010 (July 1 - December 31, 2010): due January 20, 2011

Bill Brady

Bill Brady Campaign Finance Reports (Committee ID 7537)
Report Date Filed Beginning Balance Cash Contributions Transfers Other Receipts Loans Non-Monetary Contributions (Total Expenditures) Outstanding Debts and Obligations Cash on Hand
First Semi-Annual 2010[55] July 20, 2010 $189,991.35 $2,415,790.59 $1,153,060.00 $822.96 $50,000.00 $680,480.05 $(1,511,608.46) $375,715.00 $2,298,056.44
Second Semi-Annual 2009[56] January 20, 2010, amended July 20, 2010 $410,638.32 $317,252.95 $24,250.00 $0.00 $101,000.00 $15,502.67 $(663,249.92) $501,159.45 $189,991.35
First Semi-Annual 2009[57] July 20, 2009, amended November 20, 2009 $332,195.62 $224,721.68 $24,400 $594.97 $101,000.00 $7,252.85 $(272,273.95) $652,762.91 $410,638.32

Pat Quinn

Pat Quinn Campaign Finance Reports (Committee ID 1212)
Report Date Filed Beginning Balance Cash Contributions Transfers Loans Non-Monetary Contributions (Total Expenditures) Outstanding Debts and Obligations Cash on Hand
First Semi-Annual 2010[58] July 20, 2010 $1,288,613.66 $1,221,083.86 $1,940,100.00 $735,000.00 $519,123.67 $(4,081,908.12) $766,000.00 $703,289.40
Second Semi-Annual 2009[59] January 20, 2010, amended May 4, 2010 $702,448.47 $1,478,757.10 $1,671,556.96 $0.00 $244,366.47 $(2,564,148.87) $31,000.00 $1,288,613.66
First Semi-Annual 2009[60] July 20, 2009 $82,512.22 $533,312.55 $327,100.00 $0.00 $26,780.13 $(240,476.30) $31,000.00 $702,448.47

Impact of Massachusetts Special Election

In January, 2010, the special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy resulted in a win for the GOP. In the wake of the election of Scott Brown, pundits and analysts discussed the impact of the win in terms of a possible political landscape shift for Democrats across the spectrum in 2010.

The fallout of the GOP win in Massachusetts was predicted to be far-reaching. Massachusetts is widely regarded as the quintessential blue state, despite the majority of registered voters self-identifying as independents. Prior to December of 2009, conventional wisdom held that Republicans were unelectable to national office from the state. Post-election analysis, however, shows that Scott Brown's focus on national security, opposition to the closing of Guantanamo Bay, and theme of fiscal responsibility resonated with both independents and democrats across the state. Conditions in the 2010 governor's race in Illinois match up with the Massachusetts senate race on several levels. Both offices were formerly held by Democrats replaced mid-term. Both states had worsening unemployment numbers and economic troubles. Both states were dominated by the majority party and were experiencing incumbency fatigue.

It had been suggested that with the GOP victory in Massachusetts, independent voters in states like Illinois may become energized.[61] Nationally, tea party activists and conservative movement organizations were capable of raising vast amounts of money for local or state races. In the general gubernatorial election, that nationwide enthusiasm for party change may have translated into significant campaign money for the eventual GOP candidate.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[62]
Candidates Percentage
Ryan (R) 51.03%
Porshard (D) 47.46%
Redmond (REF) 1.49%
Total votes 3,538,891
2002 Gubernatorial Results[63]
Candidates Percentage
Blagojevich (D) 52.19%
Ryan (R) 45.07%
Skinner (L) 2.09%
Brown (I) 0.65%
Total votes 3,538,891
2006 Gubernatorial Results[64]
Candidates Percentage
Blagojevich (D) 49.79%
Topinka (R) 39.26%
Whitney (G) 10.36%
Stufflebeam (I) 0.55%
Total votes 3,487,989

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 42.6%
Al Gore (D) 54.6%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 44.5%
John Kerry (D) 54.8%
2008 Presidential Results[65]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 36.7%
Barack Obama (D) 61.8%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 34.3%
Bill Clinton (D) 48.6%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 36.8%
Bill Clinton (D) 54.3%

See also

External links

Candidate pages

Footnotes

  1. ↑ PolitiFact, "Pat Quinn blasts Bill Brady for sponsoring bill on pet euthanasia in Illinois gubernatorial race," September 30, 2010
  2. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "2010 General Election Official Vote Totals Book," december 8, 2010, accessed December 21, 2010
  3. ↑ "Illinois primary election continues with vote counting, possible recounts"
  4. ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Hynes ends Democratic governor campaign"
  5. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Vote Totals List: General Primary 2010" accessed July 7, 2010
  6. ↑ Washington Post, "Illinois governor's race too close to call"
  7. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Vote Totals List: General Primary 2010" accessed July 7, 2010
  8. ↑ The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  9. ↑ CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  10. ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  11. ↑ Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  12. ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  13. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Scorecard Ratings: Illinois Governor Moves From Toss-Up to Solid Republican ," September 13, 2010
  14. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “State Profiles: Illinois”, accessed August 30, 2010
  15. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Illinois Governor: Brady (R) Still Leads Quinn (D) in Crowded Race”, October 21, 2010
  16. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Illinois Governor: Brady (R) Still Ahead in Four-Way Race”, October 14, 2010
  17. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  18. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “State Profiles: Illinois”, accessed August 30, 2010
  19. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Illinois Governor: Brady (R) Still Holds Modest Lead Over Quinn (D)”, October 6, 2010
  20. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 50%, Quinn (D) 37%, Whitney (G) 4%”, September 13, 2010
  21. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  22. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “State Profiles: Illinois”, accessed August 30, 2010
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 46%, Quinn (D) 37%”, August 23, 2010
  24. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 48%, Quinn (D) 35%”, August 12, 2010
  25. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 44%, Quinn (D) 37%”, July 29, 2010
  26. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 43%, Quinn (D) 40%”, July 9, 2010
  27. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 47%, Quinn (D) 36%”, June 10, 2010
  28. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 45%, Quinn (D) 38%”, April 30, 2010
  29. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady 46% Quinn 45%”, April 8, 2010
  30. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady 47%, Quinn 37%”, March 9, 2010
  31. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  32. ↑ We Ask America, “Illinois Governor's Race”, September 17, 2010
  33. ↑ Public Policy Polling, “Illinois Governor's Race”, September 30, 2010
  34. ↑ CNN/Time, “CNN/Time Opinion Research Poll: ALASKA, CALIFORNIA, FLORIDA, ILLINOIS”, September 29, 2010
  35. ↑ "Why Is Illinois So Corrupt?"
  36. ↑ "Illinois GOP hopes scandal leads to opportunity"
  37. ↑ Gubernatorial candidates tout ethics reform
  38. ↑ [1]
  39. ↑ [2]
  40. ↑ State's financial woes take center stage at GOP gubernatorial debate (dead link)
  41. ↑ Half of US States Have Run Out Of Money For Unemployment Insurance
  42. ↑ Mass. GOP Win Could Have Illinois Effect (dead link)
  43. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Illinois Democrats Pressure Nominee," February 6, 2010
  44. ↑ NPR, "Scott Lee Cohen Withdraws As Dem LG Nominee In Illinois," February 8, 2010
  45. ↑ Wonkette, "Scary Loser Scott Lee Cohen Will Be Governor of Illinois," April 26, 2010
  46. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Pawnbroker Campaigns for Redemption After Tearful Exit Under Pressure From Illinois Democrats, Cohen's New Bid Could Spoil Party's Chances in Governor's Race," August 19, 2010
  47. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Candidate List, General Election, 11/2/10”, accessed September 6, 2010
  48. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List: General Election 11/2/2010," accessed July 7, 2010
  49. ↑ Campaign announcement
  50. ↑ "Two Democratic governor candidates drop out"
  51. ↑ "Local Democrats Give Endorsements to Hynes" (dead link)
  52. ↑ "Bob Schillerstrom Leaves IL Governor's Race, Endorses R." (dead link)
  53. ↑ campaign website
  54. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Christopher Pedersen, Candidate Detail," accessed July 7 2010
  55. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Citizens for Bill Brady, Inc D-2 Semiannual Report 1/1/2010 to 6/30/2010”, accessed September 28, 2010
  56. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Citizens for Bill Brady, Inc D-2 Semiannual Report 7/1/2009 to 12/31/2009”, accessed September 28, 2010
  57. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Citizens for Bill Brady, Inc D-2 Semiannual Report 1/1/2009 to 6/30/2009”, accessed September 28, 2010
  58. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Taxpayers for Quinn D-2 Semiannual Report 1/1/2010 to 6/30/2010”, accessed September 28, 2010
  59. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Taxpayers for Quinn D-2 Semiannual Report 7/1/2009 to 12/31/2009”, accessed September 28, 2010
  60. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Taxpayers for Quinn D-2 Semiannual Report 1/1/2009 to 6/30/2009”, accessed September 28, 2010
  61. ↑ [3]
  62. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "GENERAL ELECTION - 11/3/1998: GOVERNOR AND LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR"
  63. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "GENERAL ELECTION - 11/5/2002: GOVERNOR AND LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR"
  64. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "GENERAL ELECTION - 11/7/2006: GOVERNOR AND LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR"
  65. ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010
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