All federal elections
2018 Federal Election Analysis
Special elections • List of candidates • Incumbents who did not run for re-election • Incumbents defeated • New members elected • Incumbent win rates • Margin of victory analysis • Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018 • Change in state delegations • Closest elections • Officials seeking other offices • Noteworthy third party candidates • Prediction markets • Battleground polls • Fundraising
U.S. Senate elections
Battlegrounds • Control of the U.S. Senate • States with U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections
U.S. House elections
Battlegrounds • Control of the U.S. House • Districts won by the opposite party presidential candidate • Elections without major party competition
State election analysis
Local election analysis
All election results

In the 2018 midterm elections, 378 U.S. House incumbents and 30 U.S. Senate incumbents ran for re-election—representing 87.1 percent of the seats up for re-election. Thirty-nine incumbents—two Democratic House incumbents, four Democratic senators, 32 Republican House incumbents, and one Republican senator—lost their re-election bids.

For more information about the new members of the 116th Congress, click here.

HIGHLIGHTS

This was the lowest number of U.S. House incumbents seeking re-election since 1992.

This was the highest number of U.S. Senate incumbents seeking re-election since 2008.

Seventeen percent of U.S. Senate incumbents seeking re-election were defeated, including four Democrats. This was the highest percentage since the 2014 midterm election when 21 percent of U.S. Senate incumbents were defeated, including five Democrats.

Thirty-four U.S. House incumbents—or 9 percent—were defeated in 2018. This was the highest percentage of incumbents defeated since 2012, when 10.2 percent were not re-elected.

Overview of defeated congressional incumbents

In the U.S. House, 176 Democratic incumbents ran for re-election. Two were defeated in primary elections and none were defeated in the general election. In total, 1.1 percent of U.S. House Democratic incumbents seeking re-election were defeated.

In the U.S. House, 202 Republican incumbents ran for re-election. Two were defeated in primary elections and 30 were defeated in the general election. In total, 15.8 percent of U.S. House Republicans seeking re-election were defeated.

In the U.S. Senate, 23 Democratic incumbents ran for re-election. Four were defeated in the general election. In total, 17.3 percent of U.S. Senate Democratic incumbents were defeated.

In the U.S. Senate, 5 Republican incumbents ran for re-election. One was defeated in the general election. In total, 20 percent of U.S. Senate Republican incumbents were defeated.

Defeated congressional incumbents by state

The following tabs provide a brief summary of each congressional race by state where an incumbent lost his or her bid for re-election in 2018.

California

California, District 10: Venture capitalist Josh Harder (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R) in the general election.^[1] This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, while Denham won his 2016 election by 3.4 percentage points. Prior to Denham's election, the district was represented by Democrat Ellen Tauscher for fourteen years.

California, District 21: TJ Cox defeated incumbent David G. Valadao by 0.8 percentage points. This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election, and it was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018. Valadao was in office since 2013, and he won re-election in 2016 by 13 percentage points.

California, District 25: Nonprofit executive Katie Hill (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Steve Knight (R) in the general election. Knight was first elected in 2014, defeating Republican Tony Strickland by a margin of 5 percentage points. In 2016 he was re-elected, defeating Democrat Bryan Caforio (D) by a margin of 6 percentage points. Hillary Clinton won this district with 50.3 percent of the vote in the 2016 presidential race.

California, District 45: Katie Porter (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters (R) in the general election. This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election, and it was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.^[2] A Republican had represented the district since its inception in 1983.

California, District 48: Harley Rouda (D) defeated incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) in the general election. Rohrabacher, who was first elected in 1988, won re-election in 2016 by 16 percentage points. However, the seat was one of 23 split-ticket districts that voted for a Republican representative and Hillary Clinton (D) for president, going for her over Donald Trump (R) by 1.7 percentage points.^[3]

Colorado

Colorado, District 6: Former Army Ranger Jason Crow (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R). Coffman was first elected in 2009. Although he won re-election by a margin of victory of two points in 2012, he gained victory with a margin of at least eight points in the the two elections leading up to 2018. But this Democratic-leaning district also supported Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump (R) by nine points in the 2016 presidential election.

Florida

Florida, District 26: Nonprofit director Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) in the general election. Although Curbelo won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, the district had gone blue in recent presidential elections, backing Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 8 points and Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 by 16 points.^[4]

Georgia

Georgia, District 6: Gun safety advocate Lucy McBath (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Karen Handel (R) and write-in candidate Jeremy Stubbs in the general election. Handel was first elected to Congress in a 2017 special election, defeating Jon Ossoff (D) by a margin of 4 percentage points. It was the most expensive U.S. House race in history. The two campaigns, along with outside organizations, spent more than $50 million on the election.^[5]

Illinois

Illinois, District 6: Energy executive Sean Casten (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Roskam (R) in the general election. Roskam, who was first elected in 2006, won re-election by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016. However, the seat was one of 23 split-ticket districts that voted for a Republican representative and Hillary Clinton (D) for president, going for her over Donald Trump (R) by 7.0 percentage points.^[6]

Illinois, District 14: Lauren Underwood (D) defeated Randy Hultgren (R) in the general election. Hultgren was re-elected in 2016 by a margin of 18.6 percentage points. As of October 2018, two election forecasters rated the race as Leans Republican, while a third rated it Toss-up. The 14th District was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.^[7]

Indiana

U.S. Senate, Indiana: Former state Rep. Mike Braun (R) defeated U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) and business consultant Lucy Brenton (L) in the general election. Trump won Indiana by 19 points in the 2016 presidential election. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Indiana was Barack Obama in 2008. Donnelly was first elected in 2012, defeating State Auditor Richard Mourdock (R) by 5.7 percentage points. Prior to his win, Republicans had won every U.S. Senate election in the state since 2004. In the 2016 Senate race, U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R) defeated former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh (D) by 9.7 percentage points for the seat held by retiring incumbent Dan Coats (R).

Iowa

Iowa, District 1: State Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) defeated incumbent Rod Blum (R) and Troy Hageman (L) in the general election. Blum was re-elected in 2016 by a 54-46 margin. Barack Obama (D) carried the district in 2008 and 2012, both times by double-digit margins. However, Donald Trump (R) won the district by a 49-45 margin.^[8]

Iowa, District 3: Small business owner Cindy Axne (D) defeated incumbent Rep. David Young (R) and four other candidates in the general election. Young was first elected in 2014 and won re-election by 13 points in 2016. Although President Trump (R) won this district by three points in 2016, Obama won it by four points in 2012. Political forecasters considered this election to be competitive.

Kansas

Kansas, District 3: Attorney Sharice Davids (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) and teacher Chris Clemmons (L) in the general election. Yoder was re-elected in 2016 by 10 points. The district backed the Republican presidential nominees in 2008 and 2012 before flipping blue for Hillary Clinton (D), who won it by 1 percentage point in 2016.^[9]

Massachusetts

Massachusetts, District 7: Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D) defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D) in his first contested primary in two decades.^[10]^[11]

Michigan

Michigan, District 8: Former Obama administration official Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop (R), Brian Ellison (L), and David Jay Lillis (U.S. Taxpayers) in the general election. Bishop was first elected in 2014 by 22.5 percentage points and was re-elected in 2016 by 26.8 percentage points. The district voted for Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) by 6.7 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election.^[12]

Minnesota

Minnesota, District 2: Businesswoman Angie Craig (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis (R) in the general election. The race was a rematch of the 2016 election, where Lewis defeated Craig by two percentage points. At that time, the seat was open after the retirement of incumbent John Kline (R). The district backed Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by one-tenth of a percentage point and Donald Trump (R) in 2016 by 1 percentage point.^[13]

Minnesota, District 3: Businessman Dean Phillips (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) in the general election. This district was one of 25 Republican-held districts that supported Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton won by a margin of 10 points, while Paulsen was re-elected by 14 points.^[14]

Missouri

U.S. Senate, Missouri: Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) defeated U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and three others in the general election. Trump won Missouri by 18.5 percentage points in 2016. McCaskill's 2012 re-election was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Missouri. In that election, McCaskill defeated U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R) by 15.7 percentage points. In the 2016 Senate election, incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) defeated Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) by 2.8 percentage points.

Nevada

U.S. Senate, Nevada: U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) defeated incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) and three others in the general election. Heller was the only Republican senator running for re-election in a state that Clinton won.

New Jersey

New Jersey, District 3: Former Obama national security adviser Andy Kim (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) and Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party) in the general election. MacArthur was first elected in 2014 by 10 percentage points and was re-elected in 2016 by 20 percentage points. The district voted for Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) by 6.2 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election.^[15]

New Jersey, District 7: Former Obama State Department official Tom Malinowski (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance (R), Diane Moxley (G), and Gregg Mele (Freedom, Responsibility, Action) in the general election. Although Lance, who was first elected in 2008, won re-election from 2012 to 2016 by more than 10 percentage points, the district voted for Hillary Clinton (D) by 1 percentage point in the 2016 presidential election.^[16]

New York

New York, District 11: Max Rose (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Daniel Donovan (R) and Henry Bardel (Green) in the general election. Donovan was first elected by a margin of 19 percentage points in a special election in 2015. He was re-elected by a margin of 26 percentage points in 2016. The seat had been held by the Republican Party since redistricting moved the majority of the district to Staten Island from Brooklyn in 2013. Prior to the change, the district had been held by the Democratic Party since 1945. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added the seat as one of its initial targets in 2018.^[17]

New York, District 14: First-time office-seeker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) defeated long-time incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley (D), who had not seen a primary challenge since 2004.

New York, District 19: Attorney Antonio Delgado (D) defeated incumbent Rep. John Faso (R), Steven Greenfield (G), and Diane Neal (I) in the general election. Faso was first elected in 2016 by a margin of 8 percentage points. The district also backed Donald Trump (R) in the presidential election that year after voting for Barack Obama (D) by margins of 6 and 8 percentage points in 2012 and 2008.^[18]

North Carolina

North Carolina, District 9: Challenger Mark Harris defeated incumbent Robert Pittenger (R) in the Republican primary in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District. The defeat made Pittenger the first U.S. House incumbent in 2018 to lose his party’s primary.

North Dakota

U.S. Senate, North Dakota: U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in the November 6, 2018, general election to represent North Dakota in the United States Senate. Heitkamp was first elected in 2012, winning by 1 percentage point. Donald Trump (R) won the state by 36 points in the 2016 presidential election. While the state has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in each of the past five elections,

Oklahoma

Oklahoma, District 5: Kendra Horn (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Steve Russell (R) in the general election.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, District 17: U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) in the general election. This race was the only U.S. House match-up of two incumbent U.S. representatives in 2018.^[19] The Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state's congressional district map as an illegal partisan gerrymander in January and adopted a new map in February. Rothfus represented the old 12th District, while Lamb represented the old 18th District.

South Carolina

South Carolina, District 1: Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford (R) was defeated by state Rep. Katie Arrington in the Republican primary.

Texas

Texas, District 7: Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) defeated John Culberson (R) in the 2018 general election. Culberson was first elected in 2000. He had last won re-election in 2016 by a margin of 12 percentage points. That year, Hillary Clinton (D) carried the 7th District, defeating Donald Trump (R) by a margin of 1 percentage point. The district is one of 25 districts that backed Hillary Clinton (D) and a Republican congressional candidate in 2016. No Democratic candidate had won election to represent the district since 1964.

Texas, District 32: Civil rights attorney Colin Allred (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Pete Sessions (R) and Melina Baker (L) in the general election. This district was one of 25 U.S. House districts that voted for a Republican representative and Hillary Clinton (D) for president in 2016. Sessions, who was first elected in 2002, ran without a Democratic opponent in 2016 and won re-election by 26.4 percentage points in 2014.

Virginia

Virginia, District 2: Businesswoman Elaine Luria (D) defeated incumbent Scott Taylor (R) in the general election. Taylor was first elected in 2016 by a margin of 23 percentage points. That year, Donald Trump (R) carried the 2nd District by a margin of 3 percentage points. Virginia's 2nd Congressional District had primarily elected Republican candidates in the previous 16 years; between 2000 and 2016, the only Democratic candidate to be elected to the U.S. House from the district was Glenn Nye (D) in 2008. In 2010, Scott Rigell defeated Nye by a margin of 11 percentage points.

Virginia, District 7: Abigail Spanberger (D) defeated Rep. David Brat (R) and Joe Walton (L) in the general election. Heading into the 2018 election, the 7th District had been held by Republicans since 1971. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted the seat.

Virginia, District 10: State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) in the general election. Virginia's 10th was one of 25 Republican-held districts won by Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton won by a margin of 10 points, while Comstock was re-elected by a margin of 6 points.

Historical context

See also: United States Congress elections, 2016, and United States Congress elections, 2014

The following data for congressional re-election rates from 2000 to 2016 was reported in Vital Statistics, a joint research project of the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute. Find the original datasets and methodology here. Data for the 2018 election came from Ballotpedia.

U.S. Senate

U.S. House

Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses

See also: Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses

In addition to incumbents defeated in elections, appointments to state and executive offices, resignations, and retirements also changed the composition of congressional delegations.

HIGHLIGHTS

Minnesota sent the greatest percentage of new members to the 116th Congress. Sixty percent of the Minnesota delegation was not seated at the start of the 115th Congress.

Ten states sent the same senators and congressmen that represented them at the start of the 115th Congress: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wyoming.

The congressional delegations of three states became more Republican: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. All three states voted out an incumbent Democratic senator.

The congressional delegations of 22 states became more Democratic. The California delegation gained seven more Democrats; New Jersey gained four; and New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia each gained three.

Footnotes

[1] Associated Press, "Democrat Harder ousts California GOP US Rep. Denham," November 13, 2018

[2] DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017

[3] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 9, 2017

[4] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 10, 2017

[5] Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Spending in Georgia Sixth race pushes past $50 million," June 19, 2017

[6] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 9, 2017

[dccc-7] DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017

[8] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 18, 2017

[9] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 19, 2017

[10] Massachusetts Secretary of State, "U.S. House Democratic primaries," accessed July 13, 2018

[WaPo-11] The Washington Post, "Massachusetts Primary Election Results," September 4, 2018

[12] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 9, 2017

[13] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 19, 2017

[14] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 19, 2017

[15] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 9, 2017

[16] Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 20, 2017

[17] DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017

[18] Daily Kos, "Presidential Election Results by Congressional District," accessed October 8, 2018

[19] CNN, "CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move toward Democrats," July 29, 2018

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Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections