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Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 4 (February 5, 2018)
This week in Heart of the primaries: endorsements are rolling in, the airwaves are lighting up, and some big names bow out. We’re covering both sides of the 2018 primaries, so be sure to subscribe to Heart of the Primaries: Republicans by clicking here. See something we missed or have a tip for us? Email geoff.pallay@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Ohio (Feb. 7), Indiana and Alabama (Feb. 9)
Passed filing deadlines: Illinois, Texas, West Virginia, Kentucky (4)
Upcoming elections: AZ-08 special election (Feb. 27), Texas (March 6)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,337 Democrats, 1,022 Republicans
Democratic pundits on the news
Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“A blue wave is coming. Electing more moderate, poll-driven, ‘blue dog’ Democrats to ride that wave would be a grave mistake.”
- Sophia Tesfaye, Salon, Jan. 30, 2018
“The Democratic National Committee wants to persuade Republicans to vote for Democrats. The party’s leaders have very little credibility with Republicans, yet they want to remain the party’s spokespersons and lead it to victory. That’s unlikely to work.”
- Neil Baron, The Hill, Jan. 19, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 194
- Republican seats heading into November: 241
- Open seats: 49
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 15
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 34
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Brady retiring after two decades representing Pennsylvania’s 1st
Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.), who is under investigation for federal corruption charges, announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election. He is the 49th member of the U.S. House to do so.
Five Democrats are running for Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, including former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Nina Ahmad and minister and former bank executive Michele Lawrence. Redistricting in Pennsylvania could further change the shape of this race.
SEIU endorses Newman in Illinois’ 3rd
The Illinois chapter of the Service Employees International Union endorsed Marie Newman (D) Friday over incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District.
“Illinois working families cannot trust Dan Lipinski to work for them in Washington,” said state council President Tom Balanoff. This endorsement splits union support in this race, with the Illinois AFL-CIO backing Lipinski.
EMILY's List also backed Newman on Friday.
Eggman makes third run in California’s 10th
Farmer Michael Eggman (D) entered the race for California’s 10th Congressional District, seeking a third rematch against incumbent Jeff Denham (R). Eggman lost to Denham by 12 points in 2014 and 3 points in 2016.
Eggman is one of six other Democrats currently running in the June 5 jungle primary.
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Pritzker launches first ads targeting Democratic rivals
J.B. Pritzker released a pair of ads targeting gubernatorial primary rival Daniel Biss (D) Thursday and Friday. Pritzker’s latest ads charge Biss, who has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders-backed Our Revolution Illinois, is not a true progressive. The ads cite Biss votes in the state Senate reducing pension benefits for retired state employees and increasing funding for charter schools. Pritzker’s campaign said its ads are a response to earlier Biss campaign ads targeting Pritzker. Biss' campaign said its ads highlighted a We Ask America poll that showed Biss gaining on Pritzker.
Pritzker and Biss are among six Democratic candidates seeking the nomination. Under Illinois law, the March 20 primary is open to all voters.
Illinois Democrats party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 7/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 3/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 2/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 11/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 4/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 36/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 67/118
Legislatures
Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 seats in state legislatures during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 27.5 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has decreased 3.5 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 2 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 46.6 percent.
Democratic push to retake the New York Senate begins with April special election
The Democratic bid to retake the New York State Senate and avoid intraparty warfare in the September primaries began this week when Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) scheduled April 24 special elections to replace two Democrats.
The District 37 seat in Westchester might be a tough hold for Democrats, but they need to win to keep a 32-31 majority in the chamber. The two sides of their splintered caucus, mainline Democrats and the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), have a tentative agreement to reunite if they win the election. The IDC and Sen. Simcha Felder (D) currently caucus with the minority Republicans, giving the GOP control of the chamber.
Mainline Democratic leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said the reunification deal will fall apart if Democrats lose the District 37 seat or if they cannot woo Felder back. If those efforts fail, mainline Democrats and the state party might support primary challengers running against the eight IDC members.
California Democratic Party denies Sen. Tony Mendoza a pre-endorsement
California state Sen. Tony Mendoza did not receive enough votes for a pre-endorsement by the Democratic Party and will instead have to seek a formal endorsement at the state convention this month.
Opposition to Mendoza began last year after he was accused of sexual misconduct. He is currently on a leave of absence from the state legislature due to the allegations, which he denies.
Special election to replace Massachusetts’ only black state senator is wide open
Massachusetts state Sen. Linda Dorcena Forry’s surprise resignation set off a flurry of activity as potential candidates weighed whether to run in the special election to replace her. At least four state representatives and two Boston city councilors are considering runs.
Forry, the only African-American member of the state Senate, said she will not endorse a candidate in the race to replace her. She resigned to take a job with Suffolk Construction.
Longtime Texas Democrat faces competitive primary challenge
Attorney Jessica Gonzalez is challenging incumbent Roberto Alonzo for the Dallas-based District 104 seat he has held since 1992.
Gonzalez said Alonzo’s positions on voting access, fracking, and gentrification as the reasons for her challenge. Three Dallas City Council members and the Dallas Morning News have endorsed Gonzales.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
314 Action
"Traditionally the attitude has been that science is above politics, and therefore scientists shouldn't get involved in politics, and what that ignores is the fact that politicians are unashamed to meddle in science. The way we push back against that is to hold a seat at the table." -Shaughnessy Naughton, founder of 314 Action
Shaughnessy Naughton's 2014 and 2016 congressional bids were unsuccessful, but the chemist found another way to influence the political system. In 2016, Naughton founded 314 Action to help elect scientists to public office. The group, which takes its name from the first three digits of the mathematical constant pi, bills itself as an EMILY's List for scientists. "There's nobody [else] who's recruiting, training and providing the EMILY's List-like support for the scientists and technical folks running for Congress," 314 Action executive director Joshua Morrow said. "There's really no [other] organization that is harnessing the power of this community."
The group primarily backs Democratic candidates. "There is a reality of electoral politics, especially at the federal level," Naughton said. "You're forced to pick a side."
And that includes primaries. 314 Action endorsed engineer Aruna Miller in the closed Democratic primary in Maryland's deep blue 6th Congressional District and neuroscientist Hans Keirstead in the crowded top-two race to unseat California Republican Dana Rohrabacher.
The group has evenwaded into a competitive intraparty contest between scientists. It’s backing pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran over chemistry professor Phil Janowicz in the top-two race to succeed retiring Rep. Ed Royce (R) in California's 39th Congressional District.
What we're reading
- “What Democrats Can Learn from Cecile Richards” (New Republic)
- “Joe Kennedy and Fall River Values” (The Washington Post)
- “Democrats Disagree on How to Respond to Trump. Is That a Problem?” (Politico)
- “Analysis: It’s the 'economy, stupid'. And right now, the Trump economy is blasting off” (ABC News)
