Heart of the Primaries, Democrats-Issue 19 (May 21, 2018)

June 4 →

← May 14

Issue No. 19

This week: Previewing the May 22 primaries.Click here to follow developments on the Republican side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!

Upcoming filing deadlines: May 30 (Arizona), May 31 (Vermont)
Passed filing deadlines: 38
Upcoming elections: May 22 (Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,205 Democrats, 976 Republicans

Democratic pundits on the news

Where do Democratic and progressive pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts highlighting differing views.

"Tuesday was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day for Democratic moderates.

“The success of very liberal candidates in primaries across four states is causing a new bout of heartburn among party strategists in Washington, who worry about unelectable activists thwarting their drive for the House majority."

- James Hohmann, The Washington Post, May 16, 2018

"Our Revolution and Justice Democrats are both batting under .300 in Congressional primaries.You have to ignore lots of examples to conclude the far left is winning the supposed ‘Dem civil war.’ The truth is that moderates, progressives, and Blue Dogs have all won primaries last night & over the past few months. Dems need all wings of the party to win.”

- Third Way Politics, Twitter, May 16, 2018

May 22 primaries preview

Abrams and Evans faceoff in Georgia gubernatorial primary

Former state Reps. Stacey Abrams and Stacey Evans are competing for the Democratic nod in Georgia’s gubernatorial race. While they largely agree on policy, they part company on general election strategy.

Abrams, backed by national progressive influencers like Bernie Sanders and Planned Parenthood, wants to mobilize minority voters who do not normally participate in non-presidential elections. Evans, endorsed by former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) and members of the state legislature, wants to reach out to rural Georgians who used to vote Democratic and to Republicans wary of President Trump.

Georgia has not elected a Democrat as governor since Barnes won in 1998.

Gray and McGrath make closing arguments in KY-06

Democrats Jim Gray and Amy McGrath are making their closing closing arguments in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District primary, with each telling voters they are the best choice to defeat incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R) in November.

Lexington mayor Gray beat a Republican here once before -- in 2016, when he bested Rand Paul (R) in their Senate contest. Gray has the potential to self-fund in the general election and says the DCCC asked him to run.

First-time candidate McGrath achieved national recognition in 2017 when she released a video touting her military background. She’s raised more money than Gray and has benefited from more than $100,000 in satellite spending by the veterans group With Honor.

Both Gray and McGrath have indicated they would not support Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader and would work with President Trump.

Texas to hold runoffs in 11 districts

Texas Democrats will choose nominees in 11 congressional primary runoffs Tuesday, including closely watched contests in the 7th, 21st, and 23rd Districts.

In District 7, attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) faces writer Laura Moser (D). Moser, backed by the Bernie Sanders-affiliated group Our Revolution, was the target of a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee opposition research dump that questioned her Texas bona fides. Fletcher is supported by EMILY’s List.

U.S. Army veteran Joseph Kopser and teacher and pastor Mary Wilson are competing in the 21st District. Kopser has endorsements from state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez and Travis County Commissioner Brigid Shea, while the group Justice Democrats backs Wilson.

U.S. Air Force veteran Gina Ortiz Jones and teacher Rick Trevino face each other in the 23rd District. Numerous state representatives as well as Giffords PAC and the Daily Kos back Ortiz Jones. The progressive group Our Revolution is supporting Trevino.

U.S. Congress

U.S. House:

• Democratic seats heading into November: 193
• Republican seats heading into November: 235
• Open seats: 53
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 17
  • Open seats currently held by a Republican: 36
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12

U.S. Senate:

• Democratic seats heading into November: 49
• Republican seats heading into November: 51
• Open seats: 3
  • Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
  • Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
• Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
• Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10

Hayes will compete in CT-05 primary after losing party endorsement by 5 votes

Former National Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes (D) is running in Connecticut’s 5th District Democratic primary after narrowly losing the party endorsement to former lieutenant governor candidate Mary Glassman (D) at the district convention.

Hayes appeared to win on the second ballot with 172 votes to Glassman’s 168. But the New Britain town chairman said there were vote switches giving Glassman a 173 to 167 victory.

The NAACP is pursuing an investigation to determine if there was ballot tampering.

Democrats focus on gun violence in campaign ads

In the wake of more than 20 fatal school shootings this year, Democrats are highlighting gun violence and calling for stricter gun regulations in their campaign ads.

In New York’s 19th Congressional District, candidate Pat Ryan (D) released a campaign ad featuring school children wearing helmets and bulletproof vests. In the ad Ryan says “If our children are going up against [assault rifles], they should have the same protection we give our shoulders. Or we could just get rid of assault rifles. What makes more sense to you?”

In Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, candidate Dan Helmer (D) released a web video showing him purchase a rifle at a gun show without a background check, while New Mexico’s 1st candidate Patrick Davis (D) said in his campaign ad, “F*** the NRA.”

New Jersey 2nd Congressional District frontrunner Jeff Van Drew (D)’s opponents have attacked his 100 percent rating from the NRA.

Casselman on Minnesota's special Senate election

Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. His blog, The Prairie Editor, can be found at www.barrycasselman.com.

When Minnesota DFL Senator Al Franken was forced to resign following a sensational controversy in late 2017, DFL governor Mark Dayton appointed his Lt. Governor and former chief of staff, Tina Smith, to take Franken’s place until a special election this November. Aside from her race as Dayton’s running mate in 2014, Mrs. Smith had not previously run for public office --- so she is not very well-known across the state, and must campaign hard to raise her name identity with state voters. Smith’s challenge is magnified by the precedent of a previous appointed Minnesota senator, Wendell Anderson. In 1978, Anderson returned to the state to campaign, but missed so many Senate votes that it became the leading issue of his subsequent defeat that year. In today’s even more hardball politics, every vote Senator Smith misses becomes fodder for her likely opponent, Republican state Senator Karin Housley.

Governors

Governors: key information
Open seats	17
Open seats held by a Democrat	4
Open seats held by a Republican	13
States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton	8
States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump	1

Valerie Ervin to take Kamenetz' place on Maryland ballot

Former Montgomery County Councillor Valerie Ervin (D) announced Thursday she will replace her former running mate Kevin Kamenetz on the June 26 gubernatorial primary ballot. Kamenetz died of a heart attack May 10. Ervin had until Thursday to decide whether to recruit another gubernatorial candidate, seek the top spot herself, or disband the campaign.

As of Friday, it was unclear whether Ervin would be able to access the reported $2 million Kamenetz had raised for the race. Only $1,000 of that amount was in a shared campaign account. The rest is in an account tied solely to Kamenetz.

Nine Democrats are running in the primary, which is open only to registered Democrats.

Our Revolution endorses Nixon

The Bernie Sanders-affiliated issue group Our Revolution endorsed actress Cynthia Nixon’s (D) primary campaign against incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D).

Nixon has also won endorsements from the Working Families Party, which backed Cuomo in his earlier gubernatorial campaigns, and Howard Dean-affiliated group Democracy for America.

This time, Cuomo has union support, including 1199-SEIU, as well as backing form elected officials, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

Three candidates are running in the Sept. 13 primary, which is open only to registered Democrats. The filing deadline for the primary is July 12.

Lamont-Bysiewicz ticket earns Democratic endorsement at Connecticut convention

Businessman Ned Lamont (D) won the Democratic Party of Connecticut's endorsement for governor Saturday while former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz (D) won the lieutenant gubernatorial endorsement.

Lamont defeated former Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim (D) to earn the endorsement. Although Ganim did not receive the required number of votes to earn a guaranteed spot on the August 14 primary ballot, he said after the vote that he intended to earn a spot on the ballot via petition.

Bysiewicz, who had suspended her run for governor to seek the lieutenant gubernatorial spot alongside Lamont the week before the convention, earned the party's endorsement but will face labor negotiator Eva Bermudez-Zimmerman, who earned the required 15 percent of the vote, on the August 14 primary ballot.

In order to make it to the primary ballot, candidates for statewide office in Connecticut must either receive at least 15 percent of the vote at the nominating convention or submit nominating petitions containing the signatures of at least two percent of registered party members.

Candidate survey reply of the week

Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the primary and general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.

What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?

“Listen to the voice of the public, do the job elected for to the best of your ability, believe that others know more than you, surround yourself with excellent people and never be afraid to admit error and change course.”

• R.J. Hadley, candidate for Georgia Secretary of State

Read all of R.J. Hadley's responses →

Legislatures

Democrats control 14 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Democrats lost 968 state legislative seats during the Obama presidency. This chart shows the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Democrats in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.

Takeaways: In Alabama*, Arkansas, California***, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland*, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico**, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina**, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Democratic candidates running has increased 41.9 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 8.8 percent. The number of Democratic incumbents facing challenges has increased 58.3 percent and the number of Democratic primaries has increased 59.6 percent.

*Did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
**Not holding state Senate elections in 2018
***Holds top-two primaries instead of Democratic and Republican primaries

Sexual misconduct and single-payer health care at center of Democratic state legislative primaries

Keep an eye on these June 5 California state legislative primaries. California uses top-two primaries, which means all candidates, regardless of party, run together on the same ballot with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election.

• Senate District 32 and Assembly Districts 39 and 45. Multiple Democrats are running to replace state Sen. Tony Mendoza (D) and state Assemblymen Raul Bocanegra (D) and Matt Dababneh (D), all of whom resigned after being accused of sexual harassment. Mendoza is trying to recapture his old seat, saying Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon (D) forced him to resign.

• Assembly District 58. Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia (D) was a national leader in the #MeToo movement before former staffers began to accuse her of sexual harassment. She faces six Democratic challengers and a negative ad campaign paid for by the State Building and Construction Trades Council.

• Assembly District 63. Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D) faced a recall campaign in 2017 for not considering a single-payer health care bill passed by the state Senate. The recall did not make the ballot, but Maria Estrada, a single-payer supporter, is running against him in his primary.

Power players

A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.

The Intercept

The Intercept is a publication that helps its journalists “pursue investigations that expose corruption and injustice wherever they find it and hold the powerful accountable.” It recently published a story detailing a secretly-recorded conversation between CO-06 Democratic candidate Levi Tillemann and House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer about the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) involvement in the race.

In an exclusive interview with Ballotpedia, The Intercept’s editor-in-chief Betsy Reed said the outlet’s role is to report on “the battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party.” Ballotpedia’s questions and her answers are below.

Do you see the DCCC's involvement in the CO-06 race as part of a larger trend in 2018 Democratic primaries?

Yes, certainly. We’ve documented numerous examples of the party stepping in to boost moderate, business-friendly candidates. The same dynamics exist in races around the country. What made CO-06 unusual was the decision by one candidate to push back in such a public way.

How do you see The Intercept's role in the coverage of stories like the DCCC's involvement in primaries?

We're reporting on the battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, which is sometimes portrayed as the establishment versus the Bernie wing. But it’s more complex, and we see our role as lifting the veil on what’s actually happening and who is doing what. A lot of the commentary sparked by our reporting has debated the question of whether it’s okay for the party to intervene in primaries, but our purpose is not to condemn the party for jumping in. In many cases, the party does not publicly acknowledge that it is intervening. We see it as our role to report what the party is doing on the ground, so voters can make decisions with as much information as possible in real time. The story of the fight within the Democratic Party isn’t front and center for the media, but how it shakes out could, if Democrats take power back in 2020, shape how the future looks for decades to come.

What we’re reading

• Dem peace deal reached in crucial House district The Hill
• Democratic-Socialist Landslide in Pennsylvania The New Yorker
• Democratic Campaign Committee Endorses NRA-Backed Blue Dogs in Midterm Elections Truthout
• Cordray-Kucinich primary serves as Democrats' first Midwest test of 2018 Politico